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HOME >> NEWS >> 东南亚能否成为新一代世界工厂

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东南亚能否成为新一代世界工厂

From:中国智能制造网 | author:kongjiangauto | Release :2021-11-22 | 196 view: | Share:
近年来受到工资成本上涨，人民币升值等多重不利因素影响，原本以“世界工厂”著称的中国制造业企业成本不断上涨，非国有制造业外流成为趋势。其中东南亚地区凭借廉价的劳动力成本获得投资者青睐。
　　

 
　　据媒体报道，2008年以来，东南亚分流中国30%订单，已经对国内1900万鞋业从业者产生影响。CEIC全球经济数据库显示，服装和纺织品在越南制造业中的占比达9%，当前越南积极参与美国主导的TPP谈判，受到这一政策预期的影响，外资正积极流入越南服装行业。
　　
　　数据还显示，今年第1季度，美国从中国进口的平板与笔记本电脑同比下降14%，而从越南的进口规模则上升超过百万台。
　　
　　手机巨头三星去年在越南设立新工厂，预计到2015年，越南将生产超过40%的三星手机，预计这一数值未来将达到80%，而目前这些生产主要在中国完成。
　　
　　此外，低廉的工资价格也是东南亚提升竞争力的因素之一。目前中国大陆东部沿海地区工人月薪大约是500美元，印尼大约300美元，越南250美元左右。而柬埔寨服装行业工人每月*低工资仅为80美元，而另一服装生产大国孟加拉国，2013年底才将每月*低工资标准提至67美元。
　　
　　但东南亚在价格上面的优势，也正面临着挑战。而且经济基本面的不确定性，让投资者也望而却步。
　　
　　东南亚劣势不断凸显
　　
　　社科院世界经济与政治研究所全球宏观研究室助理研究员杨盼盼称，由于中国同越南在出口结构上有相似之处，因此彼此的竞争关系更加明确。而受越南近日针对外国投资商的暴力事件影响，东南亚地区的经商环境蒙上了阴影。
　　
　　杨盼盼分析认为，越南面临两大经济放缓因素。一方面国内通货膨胀严重，尽管2013年的通胀率已经降至6.6%，但仍严重影响了国内消费者与企业的信心，导致内需疲软；另一方面，外需冲击使得占越南GDP接近100%的出口恢复较慢。
　　
　　但在越南发生的针对外国投资者的暴力事件，不是东南亚地区第一次爆发不稳定因素。今年4月中旬开始，柬埔寨两个经济特区30家工人开始罢工，要求发放奖金和增加工资。据柬埔寨方面统计，罢工给整个行业造成了约2.75亿美元的损失。
　　
　　而去年11月，泰国就曾爆发政治动荡，导致多家汽车制造商威胁将要退出该国。
　　
　　除了政治不稳定因素外，东南亚国家的经济基本面也很容易波动。2013年5-6月，泰国、印尼、马来西亚等新兴经济体国家爆发汇率危机，随后2014年1月越南也爆发汇率危机。
　　
　　服装零售专家、北大纵横管理咨询集团合伙人刘宏伟表示，中国的人口基数比较大，过去有几十年的时间来消化成本上升的压力，而柬埔寨和越南人口都比较少，人力成本可能会在近几年快速上升。
文章链接：中国智能制造网 http://www.gkzhan.com/news/detail/43523.html
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